Can the PRC's economy still become number one? | WEBINAR
Over the past decade the rate of economic growth of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has experienced steady decline. Now adding to domestic, structural economic headwinds like adverse demographics are intensifying geopolitical tensions with the US and a broader trend towards de-globalisation. Earlier this year, the Australian government released new forecasts putting the PRC's share of world GDP in 2035 at 24 percent, compared with 14 percent for the US. But many analysts view this as far too optimistic.
Better to bring China into the trans-Pacific tent
Australia’s trade ties with China show there’s no need to throw the baby out with the bath water
Note: This article appeared in the South China Morning Post on September 21 2022.
For those wanting to instil a view that economic exposure to China is dangerous, the Australian experience has become Exhibit A.
Australia gasses up energy security concerns
For better or worse, in sickness and in health: Australia-China political relations and trade
This paper quantifies the effects of shocks in bilateral political relations on Australia’s merchandise goods exports to China between 2001 and 2020. Using a vector autoregression framework, our estimates suggest that short-term fluctuations in political relations have no long-run effects on Australia’s aggregate export growth to China over this period, nor in any of three sub-periods analysed.
RCEP shows that open regionalism still calls the shots
Australia and Lithuania: limits of Chinese trade coercion
Note: This article appeared in The Council on Geostrategy's online magazine, Britain's World, on June 14 2022.
As the geopolitical distance between Beijing and Western capitals widens, privately-owned companies headquartered in the latter are being warned they might find themselves as collateral damage.
China is still Australia’s trade frenemy
Note: This article appeared in 360info on May 24 2022.
Despite rising geopolitical tensions the evidence of a correlation between political talk and economic connections between trading nations is often overdone.
Will a change of government change the course of Australia-China relations?
Note: This article appeared in the Australian Institute of International Affairs’ blog, Australian Outlook, on May 17 2022.
What are the risks of economic exposure to China?
Note: This article appeared in Melbourne University's Asialink Insights on April 21 2022.