Economics

Assessing the risks from Australia’s economic exposure to China

December

This paper suggests Australia’s economic exposure to China creates three distinct risks: a Chinese growth shock that comes with a ‘hard landing’, a structural shift towards less import and natural resources–intensive Chinese growth, and the Chinese Government disrupting trade ties for coercive purposes. With external demand for Australia’s goods and services largely exogenous, the scope to mitigate these risks by reducing exposure to China, without resorting to costly market intervention, is limited. At the same time, the probability and scale of each risk should not be overstated.

Interview: UTS:ACRI Director James Laurenceson speaks with the Global Times (Bilingual)

December

Note: This interview appeared in the Global Times on December 1 2021. This transcript includes a Simplified Chinese translation by Jun Wang, NAATI Level 3 translator (NAATI ID: 80136).

本采访于2021年5月20日发表于环球时报。本文由 Jun Lucius Wang(NAATI三级翻译员; NAATI ID: 80136)翻译。

Editor's Note:

China trade: The disturbing gap between US rhetoric and reality is emerging

December

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in Pearls and Irritations, a public affairs blog, on December 1 2021.

Almost as soon as Beijing launched a campaign of trade punishment against Australia in May 2020, the instinct of many in Canberra was to reach for support from the US, our 'great and powerful friend'. 

Economic reality bites: What Australia needs to know amidst US-China strategic competition

December

Executive Summary

Australia-PRC trade and investment developments: a timeline

December

Note: This factsheet is a live document which will be updated as and when notable developments in trade and investment occur. It was last updated on November 8 2021.

Australia's export mix, industrial base and economic resilience challenge

December

video summary of the report is available.

 

Executive Summary

Introduction

Australia–China relations through the frame of trade

December

Since 2017, the political and diplomatic relationship between Australia and China has seen better days; notably, in that, no Australian Prime Minister has been invited to China since 2016. Yet despite these tensions, the economic relationship remains strong. The traditional mainstay of the trading relationship (natural resources for manufactured goods) remains solid and has been joined by an increasing flow of services (tourism, education, and logistics).

Assessing the risks from Australia's economic exposure to China

December

COVID-19 and global supply chain configuration: Economic and emissions impacts of Australia-China trade disruptions

December

Economic shocks from COVID-19, coupled with ongoing US-China tensions, have raised debates around supply chain (or global value chain) organisation, with China at the centre of the storm. However, quantitative studies that consider the global and economy-wide impacts of rerouting supply chains are limited. This study examines the economic and emissions impacts of reorganising supply chains, using Australia-China trade as an example. It augments the Hypothetical Extraction Method by replacing traditional Input-Output analysis with a Computable General Equilibrium analysis.

Why pushing for an economic ‘alliance’ with the US to counter Chinese coercion would be a mistake

December

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in The Conversation on September 13 2021.