Australia’s trade ties with China show there’s no need to throw the baby out with the bath water
December
Note: This article appeared in the South China Morning Post on September 21 2022.
For those wanting to instil a view that economic exposure to China is dangerous, the Australian experience has become Exhibit A.
Australia gasses up energy security concerns
December
For better or worse, in sickness and in health: Australia-China political relations and trade
December
This paper quantifies the effects of shocks in bilateral political relations on Australia’s merchandise goods exports to China between 2001 and 2020. Using a vector autoregression framework, our estimates suggest that short-term fluctuations in political relations have no long-run effects on Australia’s aggregate export growth to China over this period, nor in any of three sub-periods analysed.
RCEP shows that open regionalism still calls the shots
December
Australia and Lithuania: limits of Chinese trade coercion
December
Note: This article appeared in The Council on Geostrategy's online magazine, Britain's World, on June 14 2022.
As the geopolitical distance between Beijing and Western capitals widens, privately-owned companies headquartered in the latter are being warned they might find themselves as collateral damage.
China is still Australia’s trade frenemy
December
Note: This article appeared in 360info on May 24 2022.
Despite rising geopolitical tensions the evidence of a correlation between political talk and economic connections between trading nations is often overdone.
Will a change of government change the course of Australia-China relations?
December
Note: This article appeared in the Australian Institute of International Affairs’ blog, Australian Outlook, on May 17 2022.
What are the risks of economic exposure to China?
December
Note: This article appeared in Melbourne University's Asialink Insights on April 21 2022.
The PRC's 2022 economic outlook – What Australia needs to know | WEBINAR
December
Lockdowns in centres of commercial activity and no clear national strategy for living with COVID-19 is the latest challenge confronting the People's Republic of China’s (PRC) economy. The potential for geopolitics to spill over to disrupt the PRC's trade and investment has also increased after Beijing refused to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And none of the structural headwinds facing the PRC economy – US-PRC strategic competition, unfavourable demographics, rising debt, amongst others – have disappeared.
Putting the BRI in perspective: History, hegemony and geoeconomics
December
If successfully realised, the Belt and Road Initiative will be the most ambitious and expansive developmental project the world has ever seen. It is not, however, unprecedented. In the aftermath of the Second World War the United States developed what was then an equally unprecedented and ambitious initiative designed to simultaneously facilitate the (re)development of some of the world’s key economies and reinforce its own position as the leader of the western world. Both the American Marshall Plan and China’s BRI are important expressions of geoeconomic influence and power.