Economics

The cause of a Chinese hard landing could be external, such as a trade war launched by the Trump Administration. Alternatively it could be internal, such as a debt meltdown in the shadow banking system. In April a Deloitte report provided detailed insights around a scenario in which China’s GDP growth slowed from a targeted 6.5 percent this year to less than three percent.[1]  Even with the Australian dollar depreciating and the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates, the forecasts remain sobering. 

Making efforts to establish Chinese natural gas prices, China has built up two gas exchanges while opening its gas markets step by step. In view of this, this paper first studies and summarises the successful experiences of developing European gas trading hubs in the following aspects: 1. necessary conditions like market liberalization, competitive market, non-discriminatory third-party access to pipeline, regulations and reforms on the dominant market players, etc.; 2. natural conditions like domestic production, trade traditions, diversified supply, market surplus, etc.; and 3.

On August 18 2017, the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) hosted a roundtable on recent developments in China's economy.

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in The Australian Financial Review on August 17 2017.

The Australian public is lukewarm in its overall support of foreign investment. However, its contribution to local employment is widely regarded positively. This is particularly important at a time when Australia’s labour market is softening and wages are growing at their slowest pace on record. This paper conservatively puts Australian employment currently supported by foreign investment at around 1.9 million, or one in six of all jobs.

Subsidising energy has been widely used but is economically unfavourable. The Malaysian government has shown strong intention to reduce energy subsidies recently, but faces challenges to prepare policy instruments to manage the impact. This study develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with breakdown of households by income level to evaluate the potential impacts of removing energy subsidies on the Malaysian economy. It is shown that removing petroleum and gas subsidy would improve economic efficiency and increase GDP up to 0.65%.

By Bob Carr

Note: This article appeared in The Sydney Morning Herald on July 27 2017.

Behind China’s recent 6.9 percent growth in GDP lies a bigger fact: between 2009 and 2030, the country will add 850 million to its middle class. I would call that a killer fact.

1. Over the past year the value of NSW goods exports to China is $7.0 billion. This is a record high.  China accounts for 16.7 percent of NSW total goods exports, and is:

- 0.7 times that to Japan;

- 2.1 times that to Korea; and

- 2.8 times that to the US.[1]

2. The annual value of NSW goods exports to China increased by $1.3 billion in the past five years.  During the same period NSW goods exports to:

- Japan fell by $448.3 million;

- Korea fell by $451.8 million; and

In a 12 month period between December 2014 and December 2015, Australia clinched free trade agreements (FTAs) with Korea (KAFTA, enacted December 12 2014), Japan (JAEPA, enacted January 15 2015) and China (ChAFTA, enacted December 20 2015). A decade earlier, Australia had sealed an FTA with the US (AUSFTA, enacted January 1 2005). The combination means that Australia now has FTAs with its four biggest overseas customers.

Senior economists, policy specialists, business representatives and diplomats from Australia and China gathered in Beijing for the inaugural Australia-China Think Tank Annual Economic Dialogue, co-hosted by the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) and the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation (CAITEC).