Economics

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in The Council on Geostrategy's online magazine, Britain's World, on June 14 2022.

As the geopolitical distance between Beijing and Western capitals widens, privately-owned companies headquartered in the latter are being warned they might find themselves as collateral damage. 

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in 360info on May 24 2022.

Despite rising geopolitical tensions the evidence of a correlation between political talk and economic connections between trading nations is often overdone.

By Elena Collinson

Note: This article appeared in the Australian Institute of International Affairs’ blog, Australian Outlook, on May 17 2022.

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in Melbourne University's Asialink Insights on April 21 2022.

Lockdowns in centres of commercial activity and no clear national strategy for living with COVID-19 is the latest challenge confronting the People's Republic of China’s (PRC) economy. The potential for geopolitics to spill over to disrupt the PRC's trade and investment has also increased after Beijing refused to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And none of the structural headwinds facing the PRC economy – US-PRC strategic competition, unfavourable demographics, rising debt, amongst others – have disappeared.

If successfully realised, the Belt and Road Initiative will be the most ambitious and expansive developmental project the world has ever seen. It is not, however, unprecedented. In the aftermath of the Second World War the United States developed what was then an equally unprecedented and ambitious initiative designed to simultaneously facilitate the (re)development of some of the world’s key economies and reinforce its own position as the leader of the western world. Both the American Marshall Plan and China’s BRI are important expressions of geoeconomic influence and power.

Perspectives is UTS:ACRI's monthly commentary series, featuring a piece on a topical subject in the Australia-China relationship from an invited expert contributor. 

By Tim Harcourt

In 2020 Australia’s political relations with China plumbed new depths. Trade and other economic ties were also hit with disruption. Contributing to this deterioration, and complicating an accurate assessment of the consequences, has been a raft of misunderstandings. This article demystifies the bilateral trade tensions by exposing the deeper drivers of political friction, providing a critical assessment of the vulnerability of the Australian economy, and placing the current state of Australia’s relations with China in a comparative regional perspective.

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in East Asia Forum on December 21 2021.

This paper suggests Australia’s economic exposure to China creates three distinct risks: a Chinese growth shock that comes with a ‘hard landing’, a structural shift towards less import and natural resources–intensive Chinese growth, and the Chinese Government disrupting trade ties for coercive purposes. With external demand for Australia’s goods and services largely exogenous, the scope to mitigate these risks by reducing exposure to China, without resorting to costly market intervention, is limited. At the same time, the probability and scale of each risk should not be overstated.