Economics

By James Laurenceson and Elena Collinson

Note: This article appeared in Network 10’s 10 daily on November 28 2019.

China’s buying the farm again.

Or so some headlines and talk-back radio hosts reckon.

A report published in May 2019 by the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney established that Australia’s economic exposure to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is large and growing, even when exports of minerals and fuels are excluded.

The Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS:ACRI) on October 31 2019 hosted a delegation from the PRC’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) for a roundtable discussion on regional trade cooperation, US-PRC trade tensions and PRC economic reform.

Participants exchanged views on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the US-PRC trade dispute and the PRC’s economic policy.

Friction between the US and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) across multiple domains, particularly trade and technology, continues to grow unabated. Market barriers, state subsidies, currency manipulation, forced technology transfers and intellectual property theft are just a few points of contention in a lengthy list of disputes between the two countries.

Successive waves of ‘reform and opening up’ in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) facilitated the growth of a private sector in an economy that had long been dominated by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). However, increasing state control over the economy has added to external pressures facing PRC firms. This factsheet provides an update on developments in the PRC’s private and state sectors.

Abstract

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in the Australian Institute of International Affairs’ blog, Australian Outlook, on July 4 2019.

While Australia's economic relationship with China has rapidly grown, so too have fears that this exposure presents Australia with excessive risk. This factsheet draws on data from an Australia-China Relations Institute report, 'Small grey rhinos: understanding Australia's economic dependence on China', which discusses the market forces driving the Australia-China economic relationship as well as the three main attendant risks.

Australia is the world’s largest coal and LNG exporter and China is Australia’s largest trading partner. What happens in China’s energy sector will have profound impact on Australia’s exports and economy.

In December 2017, China launched a three-year plan to host the world’s largest emissions trading scheme (ETS). China’s ETS highlights the nation’s urgency for energy transition and climate change. Coal accounts for approximately 60 percent of China’s primary energy supply and natural gas accounts for only eight percent of that.

Executive Summary

Australia lives with an acute ‘fear of abandonment’.

In security terms this fear has underpinned Australian foreign policy settings for decades. Recently, doubts about the reliability of the United States as Australia’s security guarantor have sent Australian government ministers on a mission to convince America that ongoing – and expanded – engagement with Australia’s neighbourhood is in its own interests.