Economics

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in The Australian Financial Review on March 23 2018.

1. On December 19 2017 China took the first step towards launching a nation-wide carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS).[1] It has been testing emissions trading since 2013 with  seven pilot schemes in five cities (Beijing, Chongqing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Shenzen) and two provinces (Guangdong and Hubei).

1. Victoria’s goods exports are worth $24.7 billion, of which $5.4 billion is to China.[1] This is:

- 1.8 times that to the US;

- 2.6 times that to New Zealand; and

- 3.5 times that to Japan.

2. The value of Victoria’s goods exports to China increased by $1.8 billion in the past five years.[2] This is:

- 1.2 times that to the US, and

- 12.6 times that to New Zealand.

The Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) and the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) welcomed the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, to deliver an address in the Great Hall, UTS. Mr Lowe spoke on the bank’s assessment of China’s economic performance and financial system, and the implications for Australia.

Following his address, Mr Lowe was interviewed by Professor Bob Carr, ACRI Director.

Time: 6:00 pm - 7:30 pm

Australia is an energy net self-sufficient country rich in energy resources, from fossil-based to renewable energy. Australia, a huge continent with low population density, has witnessed impressive reduction in energy consumption in various sectors of activity in recent years. Currently, coal and natural gas are two of Australia’s major export earners, yet its abundant renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, and tidal are still underutilised.

The Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) at the University of Technology Sydney, with support from the Australian National University's China Update, hosted the 30th Annual Conference of the Chinese Economics Society Australia (CESA) in 2018.

The theme of the conference was 'China’s economy in Xi Jinping’s "New Era"’. 

Dates: July 15-17 2018

In early 2016, China introduced additional capacity cut policies to rebalance supply in the coal market to match demand that had been reduced by slow economic growth and strict environmental regulation. Ensuing disruptions to the coal market caused these policies to be revised and, subsequently, discarded as decision makers tried to find a balance between efficient supply, economic and social stability and environmental sustainability. This paper explores the causes of these unintended consequences using an extended version of the KEM-China model.

A heated debate has arisen over whether the Asian premium (i.e. higher prices in Asia than elsewhere) in natural gas trade is due to price discrimination or different market fundamentals. Determining the origin of this premium can help to guide the gas industries and policy makers in Asia, especially when the traditional oil-indexed price mechanism fades away. Using a new systemic time-series approach, this paper explores the extent to which oil prices and market fundamentals contribute to variations in gas prices in Japan, the United States, and Germany.

On June 18 2017 senior economists, policy specialists, business representatives and diplomats from Australia and China gathered in Beijing for the inaugural Australia-China Think Tank Annual Economic Dialogue, co-hosted by the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) and the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation (CAITEC).

This paper begins by showing that even after conditioning for factors that might justifiably lead to a country having relatively high leverage, China remains a debt outlier. In this sense, China can be regarded as over-leveraged and its debt levels may present potential risks to growth and financial stability. The corporate sector is central to China’s debt story, accounting for two-thirds of the total. Moreover, the corporate sector has been mostly responsible for China’s leverage cycles, including the leveraging up since 2008 and an earlier deleveraging phase starting in 2003.