Economics

Many high income countries, including Australia, have concerns that their exports might be displaced by those from China. New UTS:ACRI research finds that China’s rise up the global value chain is likely to be a slow and gradual process. In fact, China’s own exports at lower quality points are now being displaced by other countries.

As part of the 30th annual conference of the Chinese Economics Society of Australia (CESA) the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) welcomed former Australian Ambassador to China, Dr Geoff Raby, to deliver the opening address. Dr Raby spoke on his 30 years of observing China’s economic development.

Following his address, Dr Raby was interviewed by Professor James Laurenceson, ACRI Deputy Director, and participated in a Q&A session with the audience.

The text of Dr Raby's speech is available below.

Connecting the Asia-Pacific: Australian participation in China’s regional infrastructure activities

The Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) and Deloitte hosted a Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Symposium, ‘Connecting the Asia-Pacific: Australian participation in China’s regional infrastructure activities’, on July 17 2018. 

Last year the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) reported on modelling by Deloitte that found an economic hard landing in China would send the Australian economy into recession.[1] New research points to a more sanguine outcome.

Inoue, et al. (2018) modelled the impact of a one percentage point drop in Chinese GDP growth.[2]

Executive summary

- Major ‘infrastructure gaps’ plague the Asia-Pacific region, constraining economic integration and undermining development efforts.

- In 2013, China launched two new projects – the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) – to lead regional efforts to plug these infrastructure gaps.

Last year Australia’s trade with China hit a record high of $184 billion. But there are concerns that economic risks in China, as well as political tensions in the bilateral relationship, might take a toll on the Australian economy. Will China’s demand for Australian natural resources remain buoyant as China’s domestic economy shifts away from investment towards consumption and services? Can the financial and investment side of the Australia-China economic relationship rise to match that of trade?

1. Over the past year the value of NSW goods exports to China is $8.1 billion. This is a record high.  China accounts for 17.4 percent of NSW total goods exports, and is:[1]

- 0.7 times that to Japan;

- 2.1 times that to Korea; and

- 3.0 times that to the US.

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article apppeared in the International Peace Institute's blog, Global Observatory, on June 8 2018.

The Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) welcomed Trade Minister Steven Ciobo MP to deliver an address in the Theatre, Parliament House, Canberra on June 28 2018.

In 2015, the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) was described as a state-of-the-art FTA. Beneficiaries included banks, insurers, securities companies, law firms, professional services suppliers and education services exporters, as well as health and aged care. 

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in The Australian Financial Review on March 23 2018.