Economics

The future of Australia’s liquefied natural gas trade and gas market

December

The future of Australia’s liquefied natural gas trade and gas market: The impact of East Asian gas market changes


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December
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Is China really a threat to maritime trade?

December

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in East Asia Forum on June 4 2017.

Issues in formulating natural gas benchmark prices in China

December

The oil indexed pricing mechanisms for natural gas and LNG in Asian markets, although successful until the 1990s, are general considered to be no longer appropriate, with a weak relationship between oil and gas market fundamentals. Since the current oil-indexed pricing system fails to reflect the natural gas market fundamentals, several East Asian countries including China are considering formulating their own natural gas benchmark prices.

India cannot cushion the blow if China stumbles now

December

By James Laurenceson

This article appeared in The Australian Financial Review, April 19 2017.

Australia’s economic relationship with China and India: A snapshot

December

Between 2011–2015, China and India accounted for an average of 35.5 percent and 11.9 percent of world GDP growth, respectively.[1]

In 2015-16 China was the number one customer for Australia’s goods worth $75.3 billion, accounting for 30.9 percent of total Australian goods exports. India bought $9.7 billion and ranked fifth, accounting for four percent of the total.[2]

Economics and freedom of navigation in East Asia

December

Public calls for a more aggressive regional response to China’s pressing of its territorial claims in the South China Sea are typically couched in terms of the threat posed to freedom of navigation. Yet this invites an obvious question: If freedom of navigation, a vital interest for nearly every country in the region, is at risk, why has the regional response to China’s actions to date been so limited? This article argues that one compelling explanation lies in the economics of freedom of navigation in East Asia.

East Asia’s gas-market failure and distinctive economics: A case study of low oil prices

December

This paper proposes that the gas economics in East Asia (including Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia) is different from standard economics due to its exogenous oil-indexed pricing and certain region-specific and industry-specific factors. Based on a hypothesis of distinctive economics, this paper proposes an analytical framework that studies East Asian gas markets. This paper demonstrates this framework through a case study of the effects of a low oil prices.

Energy price, regulatory price distortion and economic growth: A case study of China

December

Energy prices are often distorted by government control, which is justified on the grounds that such control will help mitigate the negative impact of price volatility from oil imports, and thus positively affect the domestic economy. This paper shows in a two-sector growth model that regulatory price distortion can negatively affect the economy, and then, based on the model, empirically estimates the impact of the price distortion on output growth in China, using monthly, time series data from 2005M1 to 2012M12.

Global impact of uncertainties in China’s gas market

December

This paper examines the uncertainties in Chinese gas markets, analyses the reasons and quantifies their impact on the world gas market. A literature review found significant variability among the outlooks on China's gas sector. Further assessment found that uncertainties in economic growth, structural change in markets, environmental regulations, price and institutional changes contribute to the uncertainties.

ACRI/Urban Taskforce industry breakfast: Learning from Asian Cities

December

With the increasing relationship between Australia and China comes an opportunity for both countries to learn from each other. A number of large Chinese developers are bringing their skills to Australia and are investing in large projects. There is an increasing investment into Australian property from China. The industry breakfast will have presentations from leaders in the relationship between China and Australia followed by a lively panel discussion facilitated by former NSW Premier and now Director of the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) Professor the Hon. Bob Carr.


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December
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