research / Journal publications

Are China's exports crowding out or being crowded out? Evidence from Japan's imports

July 17 2018

Many high income countries, including Australia, have concerns that their exports might be displaced by those from China. New UTS:ACRI research finds that China’s rise up the global value chain is likely to be a slow and gradual process. In fact, China’s own exports at lower quality points are now being displaced by other countries.

Previous studies have investigated whether Chinese exports have crowded out those from other countries. However, what has yet to be considered is the evidence based on different quality varieties. Using the most detailed Harmonized System 9‐digit product‐level data, the present paper provides evidence of crowding‐out and crowded‐out effects across different product quality segments and across manufacturing sectors by quality segments. The empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the crowding‐out effects of Chinese exports have been greatest at the lower end of the quality spectrum but less significant at the higher quality spectrum. Moreover, since 2007, China's own exports of lower quality manufactured goods have been increasingly crowded out. The key policy implication is that China's export path is in line with that taken by other Asian economies in previous decades; the crowded‐out effect could achieve win–win outcomes for countries involved; and lower income countries would do well to be open to receive those relocated low value‐added industries from China. However, the relocation policy in China is best implemented gradually as climbing up the product quality ladder takes time.

Read the article online here.

Note: This article was published in China and World Economy, volume 26, issue 4, July-August 2018, 1-23.

Authors: Yan Liu, Associate Professor, Department of International Economics and Trade, Dalian Minzu University; Xunpeng Shi, Principal Research Fellow, Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney; James Laurenceson, Deputy Director, Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney.