Journal publications

Chinese investment in Australian infrastructure assets: Accounting for local public preferences

December

Chinese investment in Australian infrastructure assets can bring economic benefits for both countries. However, it can also create domestic political challenges. This is because Australian public support for foreign investment in infrastructure is limited. In order to better inform public policy and firm decision-making in both China and Australia, this paper undertakes a choice modelling analysis of original survey data to determine the drivers of local public preferences.

Are China's exports crowding out or being crowded out? Evidence from Japan's imports

December

Many high income countries, including Australia, have concerns that their exports might be displaced by those from China. New UTS:ACRI research finds that China’s rise up the global value chain is likely to be a slow and gradual process. In fact, China’s own exports at lower quality points are now being displaced by other countries.

The evolution of Malcolm Fraser's China policy

December

This article explores the evolution of Malcolm Fraser's views on China. While Gough Whitlam is fondly remembered as a trailblazer for normalising Australia‐China relations, Fraser was a pioneer in rendering a sense of bipartisanship in Australia's China policy. Fraser was not initially a Sino‐enthusiast, however. He came from a background of staunch anti‐Communism and throughout the 1950s and 1960s believed that China posed a major threat to stability in the Asia Pacific.

The prospect for an Australian-Asian power grid: A critical appraisal

December

Australia is an energy net self-sufficient country rich in energy resources, from fossil-based to renewable energy. Australia, a huge continent with low population density, has witnessed impressive reduction in energy consumption in various sectors of activity in recent years. Currently, coal and natural gas are two of Australia’s major export earners, yet its abundant renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, and tidal are still underutilised.

Unintended consequences of China’s coal capacity cut policy

December

In early 2016, China introduced additional capacity cut policies to rebalance supply in the coal market to match demand that had been reduced by slow economic growth and strict environmental regulation. Ensuing disruptions to the coal market caused these policies to be revised and, subsequently, discarded as decision makers tried to find a balance between efficient supply, economic and social stability and environmental sustainability. This paper explores the causes of these unintended consequences using an extended version of the KEM-China model.

Oil indexation, market fundamentals, and natural gas prices: An investigation of the Asian premium in natural gas trade

December

A heated debate has arisen over whether the Asian premium (i.e. higher prices in Asia than elsewhere) in natural gas trade is due to price discrimination or different market fundamentals. Determining the origin of this premium can help to guide the gas industries and policy makers in Asia, especially when the traditional oil-indexed price mechanism fades away. Using a new systemic time-series approach, this paper explores the extent to which oil prices and market fundamentals contribute to variations in gas prices in Japan, the United States, and Germany.

China's debt challenge: Stylised facts, drivers and policy implications

December

This paper begins by showing that even after conditioning for factors that might justifiably lead to a country having relatively high leverage, China remains a debt outlier. In this sense, China can be regarded as over-leveraged and its debt levels may present potential risks to growth and financial stability. The corporate sector is central to China’s debt story, accounting for two-thirds of the total. Moreover, the corporate sector has been mostly responsible for China’s leverage cycles, including the leveraging up since 2008 and an earlier deleveraging phase starting in 2003.

Experiences of developing European gas trading hubs and their implications for China

December

Making efforts to establish Chinese natural gas prices, China has built up two gas exchanges while opening its gas markets step by step. In view of this, this paper first studies and summarises the successful experiences of developing European gas trading hubs in the following aspects: 1. necessary conditions like market liberalization, competitive market, non-discriminatory third-party access to pipeline, regulations and reforms on the dominant market players, etc.; 2. natural conditions like domestic production, trade traditions, diversified supply, market surplus, etc.; and 3.

Economic, social and environmental impacts of fuel subsidies: A revisit of Malaysia

December

Subsidising energy has been widely used but is economically unfavourable. The Malaysian government has shown strong intention to reduce energy subsidies recently, but faces challenges to prepare policy instruments to manage the impact. This study develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with breakdown of households by income level to evaluate the potential impacts of removing energy subsidies on the Malaysian economy. It is shown that removing petroleum and gas subsidy would improve economic efficiency and increase GDP up to 0.65%.

Issues in formulating natural gas benchmark prices in China

December

The oil indexed pricing mechanisms for natural gas and LNG in Asian markets, although successful until the 1990s, are general considered to be no longer appropriate, with a weak relationship between oil and gas market fundamentals. Since the current oil-indexed pricing system fails to reflect the natural gas market fundamentals, several East Asian countries including China are considering formulating their own natural gas benchmark prices.