China’s economy: state versus private
December
Just a few decades ago China’s private sector was almost non-existent. How important is it today?
1. In 2014 China economy specialist Nicholas Lardy concluded that the private sector now produces at least two-thirds of China’s GDP.[1]
China has room for policy reform
December
By James Laurenceson
Note: This article originally appeared in the Australian Financial Review, March 10 2016.
China has a choice. It can have higher growth now or higher growth later, but not both.
That's the assessment of many commentators as they watch an investment and industrial output-led economy move towards one led by consumption and services.
What China's Middle Class Means for Australia
December
Australia’s ‘China Resources boom’ may have peaked but 57 cents in every dollar increase in Australian exports between 2009-10 and 2014-15 still came from China. [1]
If managed well, Australia’s ‘China dining and services boom’ could run for decades.
1. In 2015 China’s middle class numbered 109 million. This was 17 million more than in the US. [2]
The stimulus that wasn’t: re-interpreting China’s monetary moves
December
The Great Fall of China? Insights from a China bull
December
By James Laurenceson
Note: This article originally appeared on Nottingham University's China Policy Institute blog, February 29 2016.
Chinese consumers aren’t buying the ‘currency crisis’
December
By James Laurenceson
Note: This article originally appeared in the Business Spectator, February 18 2016.
ChAFTA and beyond: Keynote address by Special Envoy for Trade Andrew Robb
December
The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) entered into force on December 20 2015. Tariffs have already been reduced and the opportunities for Australia in China are expanding.
How will the FTA continue to play out in practice? What are the next steps? How does the does the former Minister and architect of the FTA see Australia-China economic relations developing?
Australian Special Envoy for Trade the Hon Andrew Robb AO MP explored these questions in a timely and fascinating keynote address to the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI).
Event Information
Date
December
Time
5:57 PM
Venue
The problem of misreading the signs on China's economy
December
By James Laurenceson
Note: This article originally appeared in the Australian Financial Review, January 23 2016.
Since the Shanghai sharemarket burst last June, there's been a striking divergence in positions taken on the direction of China's economy. In the first few weeks of 2016 this divergence has only grown.
China's 6.9 on target
December
1. 6.9 percent growth meant China’s economy added 50 percent more purchasing power in 2015 than it did in 2010, when it was growing at 10.6 percent. That’s more RMB to be spent on Australian beef, dairy, etc.
2. Consumption accounted for 66.4 percent of China’s GDP growth in 2015. This was up 15 percentage points from 2014.
3. Retails sales grew at 10.7 percent in 2015. Independent data sources confirm robust household consumption. Westpac’s China Consumer Sentiment Index is higher now than it was a year ago.
China’s 6.9% GDP growth rate is not the hard landing feared - and Australia can benefit
December
By James Laurenceson
Note: This article originally appeared in The Conversation, January 19 2016.
After a rocky few weeks for Australian financial markets, China’s latest economic data release comes as a relief.