Australia's exposure to a Chinese economic hard landing
The cause of a Chinese hard landing could be external, such as a trade war launched by the Trump Administration. Alternatively it could be internal, such as a debt meltdown in the shadow banking system. In April a Deloitte report provided detailed insights around a scenario in which China’s GDP growth slowed from a targeted 6.5 percent this year to less than three percent. Even with the Australian dollar depreciating and the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates, the forecasts remain sobering.
Recent Opposition statements on China
In July the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) reported on an apparent tilt in the China policy of Canberra, reflected in speeches by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Foreign Minister Julie Bishop (see ACRI fact sheet ‘Australia’s tilt on China). Recently, however, the opposition Labor Party appears to be differentiating itself on China policy. This is reflected in three recent speeches by Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong.
The NSW-China Economic Relationship
1. Over the past year the value of NSW goods exports to China is $7.0 billion. This is a record high. China accounts for 16.7 percent of NSW total goods exports, and is:
- 0.7 times that to Japan;
- 2.1 times that to Korea; and
- 2.8 times that to the US.
2. The annual value of NSW goods exports to China increased by $1.3 billion in the past five years. During the same period NSW goods exports to:
- Japan fell by $448.3 million;
- Korea fell by $451.8 million; and
Australia's tilt on China
On January 26, in a speech to the US-Australia Dialogue on Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific in Los Angeles, Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop supported a position where China’s rise is balanced by an expanded US role in the Indo-Pacific region:
Australian attitudes towards China and the United States
Last updated June 26 2017.
Despite recent negative publicity in the media, three polls provide evidence of a generally positive view of Australians to China. The polls were undertaken by the United States Studies Centre (USSC) at the University of Sydney; the Lowy Institute for International Policy; and global marketing and opinion research company Ipsos. The three polls also enable comparisons with our attitudes towards the United States.
Australia’s economic relationship with China and India: A snapshot
Between 2011–2015, China and India accounted for an average of 35.5 percent and 11.9 percent of world GDP growth, respectively.
In 2015-16 China was the number one customer for Australia’s goods worth $75.3 billion, accounting for 30.9 percent of total Australian goods exports. India bought $9.7 billion and ranked fifth, accounting for four percent of the total.
The Xi-Trump summit: A media survey
From April 6-7 2017 Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump met for the first time since Mr Trump’s inauguration. The Xi-Trump summit took place at Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
Both Chinese and international media acknowledge there were few tangible outcomes from the Xi-Trump summit. However, the cordial tone and lack of controversy are generally considered positive steps towards ameliorating tensions in US-China relations during the first months of the Trump administration.
Premier Li Keqiang's Australia visit
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visited Australia from March 22-26, attending official events and dialogues in both Canberra and Sydney. It was the first visit of a Chinese Premier to Australia in 11 years.
John Howard on China
On March 3 2017 former Australian Prime Minister John Howard addressed an audience in Sydney at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) annual Economic and Political Overview event.
Among other things he offered his assessment of the Australia-China and Australia-US relationships in the context of the new Trump administration.
Mr Howard said Australia’s policy toward China ‘should essentially be a continuation of what it’s been to date’, that Australia should not be forced to choose between the United States and China:
Australia and the South China Sea: an update
Continuity, and no willingness to run American-style freedom of navigation
Australia’s position on the South China Sea remains pragmatic, unchanged over the last few years.
There is no evidence that hawkish calls for Australia to run American-style freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) directed at China have influenced the policy of the Turnbull Government.
Those calls had been made by three US admirals on at least three separate occasions between the dates February 22 2016 and December 14 2016.