Economics

China’s economy grew by 7.3% during the third quarter of 2014, meeting market expectations.

Polling by Reuters and the Wall Street Journal put the consensus forecast at 7.2-7.3%, the slowest pace in more than five years.

But to see where China is really headed, a closer look needs to be taken at its productivity.

Last week I argued that blaming Chinese money for the worsening real estate affordability in Australia was off the mark (The property bubble myth that refuses to die, 14 October 2014).

By Bob Carr

Note: This article appeared in The Australian Financial Review on October 16 2014.

As Australia’s Foreign Minister I had quoted several times an acute observation by Lee Kuan Yew. It was on the question of the future character of China. He said:

Despite valiant efforts by commentators such as Bernard Keane and Michael Pascoe to slay claims that Chinese buyers are making it harder for ordinary Australians to enter the housing market, the
notion refuses to die. It is the “zombie idea” afflicting the Australia-China economic relationship.

And there is a danger the zombies will multiply. Last week the Australian Financial Review reported that China recently eased restrictions on outbound investment. The implication being “a fresh wave of capital [is] expected to make its way into the Australian property market”.

China’s leaders have been vocal in their support of a new growth model, one where consumption leads the way. Economic commentators fret about what this means for Australia.

One view is that economic pain lies ahead. As the rate of resources and energy-hungry investment in China falls, commodities such as iron ore and coal will not fetch anything like the prices they did a few years ago. Investment in the natural resources sector will dry up.

Deep reforms to push the Chinese economy from investment to consumption are taking hold as private business and investment begin to expand.

On June 22 2015 Dr Geoff Raby, in conversation with Professor the Hon Bob Carr, ACRI Director, discussed China's future economic prospects and how these would affect Australia’s medium term economic prospects.

Dr Raby was Deputy Secretary in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) from 2002 to 2006 and Australia’s Ambassador to China from 2007-2011.

On Tuesday April 14 ACRI held  an informal discussion with visiting Professor Yiping Huang from Peking University.

Professor Huang joined ACRI Director Bob Carr and engaged with staff and students from the University of Technology, Sydney. Professor Huang explored the implications of China's 'new normal' growth rate for Australia’s economy and identified the key opportunities facing Australia-China economic relations.

The seminar took place at the UTS Business School in the Dr Chau Chak Wing Building.

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in Business Spectator on April 23 2015.

It must be the least known part of the Australia-China economic relationship. 

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in The Conversation on April 22 2015.

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in The Australian on April 2 2015.

Australia’s exports to China have taken a worrying turn, and the problem isn’t iron ore.