Economics

A few years ago, Australia was the biggest overseas supplier of wine to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Australia's largest winemaker, Treasury Wine Estates (TWE), sold everything from the budget-conscious Rawson’s Retreat to the luxury brand Penfolds to an increasingly wine-interested PRC market that accounted for 30 percent of its profits.

By Weihuan Zhou and James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in The Conversation on April 18 2023. 

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in The Australian on April 16 2023.

The visit to Australia last week by Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu confirms that official relations between Canberra and Beijing are back on track.

Ma’s big message?

A narrative has emerged in Australia since May 2020 that attributes disruption of Australian exports to China to China’s authoritarian political system and presents the local predicament as unsurprising given past attempts by Beijing at economic coercion affecting other countries. Further, the Australian public has been told that strategic friends are rallying to provide a collective defence and these countries too are seeking greater economic distance from China. The strands of this narrative serve to soothe strategic anxieties and deflect attention away from choices made by Canberra.

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in East Asia Forum on February 22 2023.

By Elena Collinson and Corey Lee Bell

By James Laurenceson

Note: This article appeared in the Lowy Institute’s blog, The Interpreter, on October 25 2022.

By Marina Zhang

Note: This article appeared in the Australian Institute of International Affairs’ blog, Australian Outlook, on October 17 2022.

Over the past decade the rate of economic growth of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has experienced steady decline. Now adding to domestic, structural economic headwinds like adverse demographics are intensifying geopolitical tensions with the US and a broader trend towards de-globalisation. Earlier this year, the Australian government released new forecasts putting the PRC's share of world GDP in 2035 at 24 percent, compared with 14 percent for the US. But many analysts view this as far too optimistic.

Note: This article appeared in The Australian on September 28 2022.